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Markets Sell on Possible Global Bank Crisis

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We woke up this morning with our pre-market futures all in the red, as Europe fretted the destabilization of Credit Suisse , which resembled another domino falling in an emerging global banking crisis likely made possible by aggressive Fed funds rate hikes and draining of the Fed’s balance sheet. It’s too early to tell to what extent any of this is an accurate diagnosis, but we do know for sure the Swiss National Bank is backstopping Credit Suisse. The stock remains down -14% on the day, a record low close.

Market indices still closed in the red today, though off session lows. The Dow, which had plummeted another -700 points (after yesterday’s -500 points-plus) at its nadir, finished the day -335 points, -1.04%. The S&P slipped -0.86%, while the Nasdaq outperformed the major indices, -0.16% — it even nudged briefly into positive territory. The small-cap Russell 2000 fared the worst for the session, -2.11%. It, along with the Dow, are now trading negative year to date.

The Fed will issue a new monetary policy report a week from today. As of a week ago, a majority of analysts were looking for a 50 basis-point (bps) rate hike, double what the Fed’s own dot-plot displayed as of late last year. But now with plenty of question marks remaining in first regional U.S. banks and now global investment firms, many have reversed expectations and now see a Fed that pauses here. Will they? Perhaps this will rest on whether more banks find themselves in jeopardy between now and then.

In any case, the fall in the 2-year bond yield of more than 100 bps in the past week is noteworthy in and of itself. The short-term yield looked to be perched firmly just above 5% (with a bias toward the upside), whereas now it’s down to 3.93. The 10-year is at 3.46, also a nice drop from a 4-handle. And look at the yield inversion gap: nearly down to half a point. We haven’t been here in many weeks.

Photoshop and Acrobat parent Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) released fiscal Q1 earnings results after this Hump Day close, beating and raising on both top and bottom lines. The software maker is +4% on the news: earnings of $3.80 per share outperformed expectations by 14 cents per share (and up even more from the previous quarter’s $3.37 per share) on revenues of $4.66 billion, which surpassed the $4.61 billion on improved Digital Media AAR (subscriptions). Raised guidance for the full year on top and bottom lines is another reason for the stock surge in late trading.

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